Coffee production in India may not achieve estimations

India, third largest coffee exporter in Asia, may not achieve the forecast of a record crop next year after more monsoon rains in almost two decades had harmed beans and increased pest attacks.
Production may total about 317,000 tons next season, 30,000 tons less than the record 347,000 tons provided by Coffee Board of India in July, said the member of the state agency , Anil Kumar Bhandari . The harvest was 318,200 tons in the year that began on 1 October 2012.
The smaller offerings in India, where the Robusta coffee accounts for 70 % of production, could help stem the decline in the prices of these beans. Global production, including Arabica coffee, will exceed demand for the fourth consecutive year and stocks will rise to its highest level since 2009, estimated the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
"The drop in Robusta coffee cherries have been a problem due to excessive rains," said Anil Bhandari . "There has been strong pest attacks white drill stem at harvest of Arabica. This drill has been happening for three or four years, and each year, about 5 % of the crop is destroyed."
The main production areas in Karnataka, which produce about 70 % of Indian production, received about 29 % more monsoon rains between June 1 and August 20, according to the India Meteorological Department. The rains in the first two months of the monsoon season from July to September, the main source of irrigation of 235 million farmers in India, was the biggest since 1994, according to the Department.
"First, in April, very little rain fell and high temperatures affected the harvest," said the president of the Farmers Association of Karnataka, Nishant Gurjer." Since June, we had more rain in the last 20 years. "The association expects production decline to 280,000 tons, since the excessive moisture of the soil led to disease, affecting many plants.
India's exports will increase from September, as buyers from North America, Western Europe and Japan began purchasing and shipments in that year will be equal to 2012 sales, said Amil Bhandari. Exports fell by 4.1 % to 217,492 tons in the seven months to July compared with the previous year, according to the Coffee Board. Exports included 116,732 tons of Robusta and Arabica 43,206 tons, the data showed.
"There may be a small boost in exports in the next three months due to the strengthening of the dollar, which will allow exporters to offer a good price to buyers. For the full year, exports will remain stable."
Source: CenárioMT