The Arabica coffee had a gloomy 2012 for the price, losing more than a third of its value, making it particularly in the worst commodities in New York. Coffee prices have been undermined by a strong harvest in Brazil, with a record of 50.8 million bags, including Robusta coffee, and ideas of a return to a market surplus in 2012/13.
According to Barclays Bank, "for 2013/14, in Brazil, we expect a drop of only 5.9%. Increased investment in new plants, fertilizer use and area expansion will help the Brazilian harvest”. In Colombia, production in 2012/13 is expected to recover modestly to 8.8 million bags, compared to 7.7 million in 2011/12, while production in Mexico and Central America is expected to remain high.
For Rabobank, "coffee prices are expected to increase in 2013, finding support in increasing global demand and the decline in stocks”.
Source: Revista Cafeicultura