Coffee harvest in Brazil 2014/15 should be below expectations

The season 2014/15 coffee Brazil should fall well below expectations as a result of intense stress and a pruning of large trees after two consecutive harvests the world's largest producer, said on Monday the Swiss Volcafe , division coffee trading ED&FMan
The trading company lowered its production forecast to 51 million 60-kg bags, compared to 60 million bags provided in November, a review of expectation which puts them closer to those numbers that can be achieved, according to representatives of producers in Brazil polled by Reuters.
"The numbers are now closer to reality... The fix (the estimate) is a magnitude," praised the president of the National Coffee Council (CNC), Silas Brasileiro. "Now stand with the feets on the ground."
According to the director of the entity that represents the producers, overestimations have damaged the market, reducing prices and discouraging farmers from Brazil.
Arabica coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange fell by around 20 % by 2013, pressured by ample global supplies and expectations of a new large crop in Brazil.
Silas Brasileiro believes that revised figures as the Volcafe can raise the prices.
"The market has hampered the production of coffee in Brazil. This (revision in estimation) demonstrates a maturing of the market..." added Silas Brasileiro.
"It's getting closer to reality. It's too early to speak, but 51 (million bags), if more, not much more," said the president of Cooxupé, largest cooperative of growers in the world, Carlos Paulino da Costa. The national harvest is intensified in mid-year.
To Carlos Paulino da Costa and Silas Brasileiro, the new crop would not break the cycle of high and low crop of Arabica coffee.
In December, the National Supply Company (Conab) estimated the previous crop (low of the biennial cycle) to 49.15 million bags.
For the prediction of Volcafe, however, the cycle would be broken.
The new company forecast compares to the volume of 57.2 million bags the previous season (2013/14) and 56.8 million in 2012/13, according to data from Volcafe also considered exaggerated by producer representatives.
The Volcafe explained that farmers underwent severe pruning to eliminate the costs of harvesting this year 's crop and to stimulate the subsequent season.
Indicative of lower prices for coffee are among the factors that led to the intensification of pruning by farmers.
The trading still predicted for 2014/15 global coffee market in deficit of about 5 million bags, compared to a surplus of 6 million bags in the previous year.
Source: Revista Cafeicultura